Consumer confidence fell sharply in April, with the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Index dropping 11 points to 80.3 — its lowest level in about three years. The index has fallen 20 points in the past two months, which ANZ links to the oil price shock following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.

Households are retreating on major purchases. The net proportion saying it’s a good time to buy a big-ticket item fell 11 points to -25, the weakest read since September 2024. Only 27% say it’s a good time to buy, while 52% say it’s a bad time.

Inflation expectations two years ahead jumped a further 0.9 percentage points to 6.6%. ANZ points to petrol prices, up about 30% year-on-year, and ongoing 4–5% food price inflation as key pressures. The bank notes confidence and petrol don’t always move together, but says the oil price shock appears to be the driver this time — not only through fuel costs but through what higher oil could mean for the broader economy and job security.

Both the “current” and “future” components deteriorated. The future conditions index fell from 96.7 to 85.9, the lowest in two years. The current conditions index dropped from 83.1 to 71.9, the weakest since October 2023.

Assessments of personal finances worsened. A net -31% of respondents say they’re worse off than a year ago (down 11 points from March), with only 20% saying they’re better off and 51% worse off — the weakest result for this measure since mid-2008. Looking ahead, a net 3% expect to be better off this time next year, down 7 points month-on-month, with 35% expecting to be better off and 32% worse off.

Views on the economy soured markedly. Net perceptions of the 12‑month outlook fell 23 points to -48%, the lowest in three years. The five‑year outlook edged down 2 points to +3%. House price inflation expectations eased from 3.8% to 3.2%.

ANZ highlights that while confidence and petrol prices don’t always move in lockstep, the sharp deterioration in responses about the economic outlook aligns with the recent oil price shock. For retailers, the step-down in the “good time to buy” gauge points to softer demand for big-ticket items heading into winter.